Buying Points Sports Betting

Introduction

• Buying Points Sports Betting College Football
• Buying Points Sports Betting Sites
• Betting Points Explained
• Sports Betting Odds

• You can buy points when you’re betting on basketball, but because it scores by one, two, and three points buying just a half-point can be more valuable than in football as it has more of an impact on the final score.
• Apr 03, 2016 What Does Buying Points Mean? Buying half-points or points is a strategy that is mostly associated with betting on the NFL or college football point spread or game total. A good number of sportsbooks allow bettors to buy half a point or more from a published point spread or total.

Buying Half Points in Football. A statement repeated on betting forums often is “if buying half-points were +EV the bookmaker wouldn’t sell them”. This is just another football betting myth. In this article I’ll discuss buying half-points for NFL football betting in great depth, touch on college football, and teach you easy to follow. Home Gambling The Meaning of Selling or Buying Points in Sports Betting. Gambling; The Meaning of Selling or Buying Points in Sports Betting. Gray Larch - January. Buying points allows you to give away fewer points on the favorite or receive more points on the underdog.

This page shows the fair price to buy or sell up to 1.5 points in the NFL, off of both the spread and the total. One practical use for this is when the sports book lets you change the point by up to 1.5 points. Of course, you'll have to lay more if buying points, and get more if selling them. Pinnacle sports book is a good example. You need to log in to do it, but they have a sliding toolbar for the adjusted prices when buying and selling up to 1.5 points. Another practical application is deciding what is the better of two lines. For example, +3 at even money, or +3.5 and -120.

The following table shows the fair price you should have to pay for buying and selling up to 1.5 points according to the fair point spread. For example, if a bet is fair at -10 even money, then it would also be fair at -11.5 at +122, -11 at +116, -10.5 at +109, -9.5 at -109, -9 at -111, and -8.5 at -113. It also answers the question posed above, that +3 even money is an equally good bet as +3.5 at -120. It also shows that it is worth paying 10 points for a half point of a point spread off or onto a spread of 7 (for example going from -7.5 to -7, -7 to -6.5, +6.5 to +7, and +7 to +7.5). So if you are going to lay 110 off of a 7 point spread anyway, it is slightly better to lay 120 for the half point, something many sports books allow.

Buying and Selling Points off of the Spread

Spread	Sell 1.5	Sell 1.0	Sell 0.5	Buy 0.5	Buy 1.0	Buy 1.5
-14	117	114	111	-111	-116	-121
-13.5	127	123	112	-105	-109	-111
-13	129	117	105	-105	-106	-108
-12.5	122	109	105	-102	-103	-110
-12	111	106	102	-102	-108	-114
-11.5	108	103	102	-106	-112	-123
-11	109	108	106	-106	-116	-125
-10.5	114	112	106	-109	-118	-121
-10	122	116	109	-109	-111	-113
-9.5	126	118	109	-102	-104	-108
-9	120	111	102	-102	-106	-111
-8.5	113	104	102	-104	-109	-122
-8	108	106	104	-104	-116	-128
-7.5	111	109	104	-111	-123	-133
-7	121	116	111	-111	-119	-127
-6.5	129	123	111	-107	-114	-118
-6	131	120	107	-107	-110	-113
-5.5	128	114	107	-103	-106	-114
-5	117	110	103	-103	-110	-117
-4.5	114	106	103	-107	-114	-141
-4	113	110	107	-107	-131	-154
-3.5	118	114	107	-122	-144	-151
-3	137	129	120	-120	-125	-130
-2.5	156	144	122	-104	-108	-114
-2	150	127	104	-104	-109	-114
-1.5	133	108	104	-105	-109	-110
-1	113	109	105	-105	-105	-105
0	110	105	EV	EV	-105	-110
1	105	105	105	-105	-109	-113
1.5	110	109	105	-104	-108	-133
2	114	109	104	-104	-127	-150
2.5	114	108	104	-122	-144	-156
3	130	125	120	-120	-129	-137
3.5	151	144	122	-107	-114	-118
4	154	131	107	-107	-110	-113
4.5	141	114	107	-103	-106	-114
5	117	110	103	-103	-110	-117
5.5	114	106	103	-107	-114	-128
6	113	110	107	-107	-120	-131
6.5	118	114	107	-111	-123	-129
7	127	119	111	-111	-116	-121
7.5	133	123	111	-104	-109	-111
8	128	116	104	-104	-106	-108
8.5	122	109	104	-102	-104	-113
9	111	106	102	-102	-111	-120
9.5	108	104	102	-109	-118	-126
10	113	111	109	-109	-116	-122
10.5	121	118	109	-106	-112	-114
11	125	116	106	-106	-108	-109
11.5	123	112	106	-102	-103	-108
12	114	108	102	-102	-106	-111
12.5	110	103	102	-105	-109	-122
13	108	106	105	-105	-117	-129
13.5	111	109	105	-112	-123	-127
14	121	116	111	-111	-114	-117

The next table is for buying and selling points off of the total.

Buying and Selling Points off of the Total

Total	Sell 1.5	Sell 1.0	Sell 0.5	Buy 0.5	Buy 1.0	Buy 1.5
33	113	111	108	-108	-116	-123
33.5	120	117	108	-107	-114	-120
34	125	116	107	-107	-112	-116
34.5	124	114	107	-104	-109	-114
35	119	112	104	-104	-109	-113
35.5	117	109	104	-104	-108	-121
36	113	109	104	-104	-116	-127
36.5	113	108	104	-111	-122	-130
37	119	115	110	-110	-117	-124
37.5	127	122	111	-106	-112	-116
38	129	118	106	-106	-110	-113
38.5	125	112	106	-103	-107	-114
39	116	110	103	-103	-110	-116
39.5	113	107	103	-106	-112	-122
40	113	110	106	-106	-115	-124
40.5	116	112	106	-108	-117	-121
41	121	115	108	-108	-112	-115
41.5	125	117	108	-103	-107	-114
42	121	112	103	-103	-110	-117
42.5	116	107	103	-107	-113	-122
43	113	110	106	-106	-115	-123
43.5	117	113	107	-108	-115	-125
44	122	115	107	-107	-116	-124
44.5	124	115	108	-108	-115	-120
45	124	116	107	-107	-112	-116
45.5	125	115	108	-104	-108	-117
46	120	112	104	-104	-113	-121
46.5	116	108	104	-108	-117	-125
47	117	112	108	-108	-115	-122
47.5	122	117	108	-106	-113	-120
48	124	116	106	-106	-113	-119
48.5	123	113	106	-106	-112	-118
49	119	113	106	-106	-112	-118
49.5	119	112	106	-106	-111	-124
50	118	112	106	-106	-117	-128
50.5	118	111	106	-111	-122	-133
51	123	117	110	-110	-120	-129
51.5	129	122	111	-108	-117	-122
52	131	120	108	-108	-113	-118

2010 Super Bowl Example

Let's take a look at an example from the Pinnacle Sports adjusted lines on the 2010 Super Bowl. The default lines are Saints +5.5 -106, and Colts -5.5 -102. The following table shows the lines on the Saints. The first column shows the point spreads available. The second column shows the prices Pinnacle offers at each spread. The third column shows the fair line. These can be found from my tables, and then subtracting 2. The reason for subtracting 2 is the Saints are slightly favored at +5.5. The fourth column shows the expected value. Note that none of the adjusted lines are ever a better value than betting the default line of +5.5.

Pinnacle Sports Lines on Saints

Spread	Pinnacle Line	Fair Line	Expected Value
+7	-144	-130	-4.16%
+6.5	-124	-116	-2.93%
+6	-116	-109	-2.86%
+5.5	-106	-102	-1.87%
+5	-103	101	-1.92%
+4.5	100	104	-1.91%
+4	107	112	-2.13%

The next table is much the same, but for the Colts. In this case I added 2 points to the fair lines, because the Colts are slight underdogs against a 5.5 spread. This table shows that it is a better value to sell the 1.5 points, and lay 7 points at +128, as opposed to lay 5.5 points at -106. All bets still have a negative expected value. However, if your handicapping skills led you to bet the Colts anyway at -5.5 -102, you would be better off betting them at -7 +128.

Pinnacle Sports Lines on Colts

Spread	Pinnacle Line	Fair Line	Expected Value
-7	128	130	-0.96%
-6.5	110	116	-2.84%
-6	103	109	-2.90%
-5.5	-102	102	-1.96%
-5	-110	-101	-4.09%
-4.5	-114	-104	-4.35%
-4	-122	-112	-4.07%

I have looked at the Pinnacle lines on some other NFL games besides the Super Bowl. To make a general statement, I think Pinnacle does a solid job setting their alternative point spreads. Sometimes I perceive a better value than the default point spread selling 1.5 points, but never enough to overcome the juice. My advice is if you are going to bet something on Pinnacle anyway, check to see if you get a better value selling 1.5 points.

Methodology

The above tables were based on NFL seasons from 1983 through 2009. To get at a fair probability of winning buying or selling points off of a given spread or total, I looked at all games within 3 points of the spread or total in question, to see how often the final score would have been affected by buying or selling points.

Disclaimer

Ultimately football is played with real people, and not statistics. Compared to other sports, the NFL has relatively few games per year, leading to a small-sample-size problem. So any advice on football betting from anyone, including me, should be taken with a grain of salt.

One might also argue that the magnitude of the total should be taken under consideration. I would tend to disagree, but other sports bettors I respect maintain that the effect of buying and selling points is more significant in a game with a low total. I did not take that into consideration.

Written by: Michael Shackleford

If you place wagers on US sports, then chances are high that you’ve heard of point spreads. Here’s how they work; if a game has Patriots -9.0 and Vikings +9.0, the Patriots are 9.0 point favorites and the Vikings are 9.0 point underdogs. Unless otherwise stated, no matter which team you bet on, you’ll be required to risk $1.10 for each $1.00 you want to win. For Patriots bettors to prevail, they need their team to win by 10 or more points. A 9-point Patriot victory would be a push (a tie). For Vikings bettors to take home the victory, they need to either win the game or lose by less than 9 points.

Point spreads are used since most recreational bettors prefer to wager even money propositions. In the above example, if there was no point spread, only moneyline betting would exist. So, if odds makers are giving the New England Patriots a 73% chance of winning a game, then in order to take bets and still have a small profit margin, the bookmaker would have no choice but to require Patriot bettors to stake $3.00 or more for each $1.00 they want to win.

With a point spread, the odds are balanced, so you usually have to risk just $1.10 to win $1.00. This makes the point spreads appealing to recreational bettors, who often think it’s easy to make money from them. We have to be honest with you; it’s NOT easy, but it IS possible. The strategy we cover in this article should help!

Recommended Reading

We’ve provided a brief explanation of point spreads in our introduction here, but if you’d like to know more about this type of wager then please read our beginner’s guide to betting point spreads.

Simple Tips for Point Spread Betting

Strategy for betting point spreads is obviously different for each sport and league, but these four tips are general enough to apply to them all.

• Take Advantage of Bonus Offers
• Use Multiple Betting Sites
• Be Careful of Road Favorites
• Understand Key Numbers

Let’s go over each of these tips in a little more detail.

Take Advantage of Bonus Offers

One way to make money from sports betting is to open an account at an online betting site and take advantage of their sign up bonus. This gives you extra money to wager with, and since point spreads are so straightforward, it can be relatively easy to meet the associated wagering requirements and still come out ahead. Repeating this process at multiple betting sites will maximize your potential returns! We just ask that you please stick with reputable sites, like any of the ones that we recommend.

Use Multiple Betting Sites

We already mentioned how using multiple betting sites allows you to take advantage of multiple bonus offers. That’s not the only benefit either. Since point spreads vary between sites, one of the best ways to beat these wagers is to compare the different spreads in order to find which one is the most favorable. This doesn’t take nearly as long as you might think, and it will make a huge difference to your bottom line over time.

Let’s take a hypothetical game between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots as an example. One site might have the spread as follows.

Another site might offer a slightly different spread.

If you’re betting in favor of the Patriots, then you should be betting with Bookmaker A. If the Patriots win by more than seven points, then you’ll win with either bookmaker. However, if they win by exactly seven points, you’ll lose with Bookmaker B. With Bookmaker A, you’ll push and get your stake returned.

On the other hand, if you’re betting on the Bills, then Bookmaker B will be your best option. A Bills loss of exactly seven points would be a push at Bookmaker A, but it would be a win for you at Bookmaker B.

It’s only a half-point difference, and that might not seem like a lot. The bookmakers tend to be very accurate with their spreads though, and an extra half-point in your favor can easily add up to extra profits over time.

Be Careful of Road Favorites

Many novice bettors fail to understand the impact of home advantage when wagering on sport events. When looking at the board for potential wagers, these bettors tend to get excited and bet on lots of superior teams favored on the road against weaker opponents. The betting market is so much more advanced than this, and for the most part point spreads are always going to be 50/50 propositions.

Please Note

We’re not saying that you should never bet on road favorites. Just make sure that you have good reasons to do so. Keep in mind; they don’t just need to win, they need to win by a greater margin than the spread suggests they will.

Understand Key Numbers

While understanding key numbers is beneficial for betting point spreads on any sport, key numbers are known for having the most significance in football. In NFL football, most games are decided by three or seven points. Therefore, when shopping the odds, the difference between -7.0 and -6.5 is far greater than the difference between -5.5 and -5.0.

With some betting sites odds, certain games are priced differently than risking $1.10 to win $1.00 (which is called -110 odds). For example, you might see the Giants priced at -105 and +7 in a game against the Jets. Now, you only have to risk $1.05 to win $1.00. This is obviously better odds, but it’s very likely that they will lose by exactly seven to give you a push. Taking -110 and +7.5 with an alternative bookmaker is actually the better bet.

Getting your head around these kind of intricacies, as well as knowing the relevant key numbers, is vital if you want to bet on the point spreads successfully.

Now that we’ve got the basic tips covered, we want to provide you with some point spread betting tips specific to two of the most popular US sports: football and basketball.

Point Spread Betting in Football

One of the best ways to beat football point spread betting is to use teasers. A teaser is a form of a parlay bet using modified point spreads. Each point spread you select is moved 6 points in your favor. For example, let’s say you’re interested in betting on the following.

Buying Points Sports Betting College Football

A teaser would give you a single wager with the following spreads.

Each selection is obviously easier to get right with the spread moved in your favor, but you do have to get all three correct in order for your wager to win.

Recommended Reading

If you want to learn how to beat this form of wagering, you’ll definitely want to read our article on betting football teasers.

Another way to beat football point spreads is to shop for off market prices. For example, let’s say you’re shopping online betting sites and see every site is offering Vikings +7.0. Then, you stumble upon one site that’s offering +7.5. There’s a good chance that this is a +EV wager, simply because it is out of sync with every other site. Please note that this strategy isn’t quite the same as simply shopping for the best lines. Here, you’re specifically looking for wagers that are +EV because they’re against the market.

It’s also important to consider whether or not there’s any correlation between the point spread and the betting total. If they are, a parlay wager is a good way to get maximum value. For example, a college football point spread +24.5 parlayed with under 48 points in the same game might be a great parlay bet. If the +24.5 team covers the point spread, then there’s an increased chance that the game also goes under the posted total of 48.

Finally, you might want to think about learning the correct strategies for buying half-points in football. While many people are against this method, we’re here to tell you that there are some circumstances where buying points can be profitable.

Point Spread Betting in Basketball

Buying half points is a strategy that can work for basketball too. Most online betting sites offer bettors the ability to purchase half-points at 10 cents each. Let’s say the Lakers are -6.5 at odds of -110 for example. Here of some of the options you can expect to see.

A great strategy for betting basketball point spreads is to shop dozens of betting sites for the best line, and then purchase as many half points as possible (provided they are priced 10 cents each).

When using this strategy, it’s helpful to know the most common margins of victory in NBA basketball and how often they occur.

This information shows us that nearly half the games finish with one of the eight point margins listed, and this isn’t the result of variance. Some margins of victory occur more frequently than others because of end game strategy. The winning team is often found running the clock, while the losing team if often found intentionally fouling.

Buying Points Sports Betting Sites

The key here is to target the point spread five and seven, because these are virtually tied as the most common margins of victory. It’s important to recognize that most betting sites are only willing to sell 2 or 3 half points for 10 cents each, after which point they start charging more. Some sites sell up to four half points at this price though.

To show how this can be exploited, take a point spread of -8.5 at odds of -110. This is a 50/50 proposition. Let’s assume you’ve purchased enough points to move the spread to -6.5 at odds of -150. Now, you’d win instead of lose 6.24% of the time they win by 8, and 6.59% of the time they win by 7. Add these together with the 50% from the original proposition, and we get 62.83%.

Go to our odds converter, and you’ll see that the implied probability of -150 is 60%. This means you need to win 60% of the time to break even. However, our handicapping shows the actual probability of winning is 62.38%.

If we risked $150 to win $100 on this -150 line, 62.38% of the time we would win $100. And 37.62% of the time we would lose $150. This gives us an expected profit of $5.95 for every $150 risked.

Betting Points Explained

Warning

Sports Betting Odds

If you only make large +EV bets such as the basketball example above, betting sites will limit the amount you’re allowed to wager. It’s not uncommon for online bookmakers to spot a skilled bettor and say, “Okay you can keep wagering here, but the maximum you’re allowed to bet per game is $500.00.”
If you keep betting and winning, they might decrease your limits even further. That’s why we recommend trying to hide the fact that you’re so sharp. By placing some random wagers and occasionally spending some time at their casino, you’ll have a much better chance of staying under the radar.
This is also another good reason for using multiple sites. Since there are so many different reputable betting sites to choose from, it would take you a long time to get limited at every single one of them.