Point Spread In Basketball
Get the latest NCAAB odds, spreads and betting lines from this week's games, as well as full coverage of the National Collegiate Athletic Association Basketball from USA TODAY. Point Spread: Commonly called the line or spread, it is the number chosen by Las Vegas and overseas oddsmakers that they feel will get an equal number of people to wager on the underdog as on the. The point-spread was developed to provide a balance for both teams involved in a contest to attract bettors to potentially back the weaker team and receive points. The two squads in a game are listed with a title, either a favorite or an underdog. NCAA basketball odds, point spreads, over/under, and money lines for all college basketball games. Sign up for BettingData.com for advanced NCAA basketball odds & lines!
I know not everyone is familiar with moneyline betting. Taking a team on the moneyline means you are wagering on a team to win the game outright. The money lines are adjusted based on who is more likely to win the game (based on the point spread).
Let’s use an example. A 4-point favorite in NCAA basketball might be listed at -204 via the money line. This means that you would need to wager $204 to profit $100 on the favorite.
On the flip side, an underdog of 4 points would be listed at +166. This means a wager of $100 on the under would pay you $166 if they won the game outright.
True Money Line: How to use our College Basketball Spread to Moneyline Converter
The chart below plots what the true money line on a game should be based on the posted spread. This was found looking at data on over 20,000 college basketball games and finding out how often the favorite or underdog wins outright at that number (see the table on expected win percentage below for even more detail). What this gives us is what the true money line of a game is given a fair market (e.g. no juice applied by the sportsbook).
Using this data, you should be able to identify when your book has a money line that isn’t properly priced based on historical results. It is obviously possible for these probabilities to change year to year, but with over 1,500 games sampled at each common line, we are confident that our true money line pricing is accurate. Once you get to less common spreads, of course, you have a smaller sample and the numbers won’t be as reliable, but the main goal here is to identify market inefficiencies on the money line on common point spreads.
Another way to use this to your advantage is when picking upsets in the tournament. You won’t always see the lower seed viewed as the favorite. Sometimes Vegas sees “the underdog” in the committees’ eyes as the team more likely to advance. I definitely use this trick for my own NCAA bracket predictions.
Spread to Expected Win %
The table below uses historical data to calculate the true win percentage and money line at each spread. The numbers represent pricing based on a fair market, meaning there would be no advantage to the books. Depending on both the spread and the book you use, a books pricing will incorporate an edge to the money line price. For example, we show a -3 point favorite with a true, fair market money line of -159 and a +3 point dog at +159. In a real-lift situation, the pricing will be more like +130 on the dog and -150 on the favorite. In this case we see some advantage to taking a -3 favorite on the money line at -150 with a true money line value at that number listed at -159.
The fewer games you have at a line, the less accurate the data will be, so we’ve excluded spreads without at least 100 occurrences in our sample. Also note that the higher the money line, the more of an advantage the book applies. In our first example, the book used a 20 cent difference between the favorite and dog price, at a higher spread like -12.5 you are going to see a much bigger difference, like -1100 on the favorite and +650 on the underdog (a 450 cent difference). Using this example, there is no advantage to taking the money line as the built-in advantage for the book is too great.
| Line | Games | Wins | Losses | Fav Win % | Dog Win % | Fav ML | Dog ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 1993 | 1035 | 958 | 51.93% | 48.07% | -108 | +108 |
| -1.5 | 2039 | 1088 | 951 | 53.36% | 46.64% | -114 | +114 |
| -2 | 2196 | 1220 | 976 | 55.56% | 44.44% | -125 | +125 |
| -2.5 | 2278 | 1311 | 967 | 57.55% | 42.45% | -136 | +136 |
| -3 | 2151 | 1322 | 829 | 61.46% | 38.54% | -159 | +159 |
| -3.5 | 2200 | 1374 | 826 | 62.45% | 37.55% | -166 | +166 |
| -4 | 2071 | 1323 | 748 | 63.88% | 36.12% | -177 | +177 |
| -4.5 | 2096 | 1389 | 707 | 66.27% | 33.73% | -196 | +196 |
| -5 | 1836 | 1240 | 596 | 67.54% | 32.46% | -208 | +208 |
| -5.5 | 1990 | 1382 | 608 | 69.45% | 30.55% | -227 | +227 |
| -6 | 1727 | 1235 | 492 | 71.51% | 28.49% | -251 | +251 |
| -6.5 | 1773 | 1286 | 487 | 72.53% | 27.47% | -264 | +264 |
| -7 | 1620 | 1216 | 404 | 75.06% | 24.94% | -301 | +301 |
| -7.5 | 1690 | 1312 | 378 | 77.63% | 22.37% | -347 | +347 |
| -8 | 1457 | 1121 | 336 | 76.94% | 23.06% | -334 | +334 |
| -8.5 | 1428 | 1177 | 251 | 82.42% | 17.58% | -469 | +469 |
| -9 | 1285 | 1038 | 247 | 80.78% | 19.22% | -420 | +420 |
| -9.5 | 1205 | 1018 | 187 | 84.48% | 15.52% | -544 | +544 |
| -10 | 1128 | 938 | 190 | 83.16% | 16.84% | -494 | +494 |
| -10.5 | 1053 | 896 | 157 | 85.09% | 14.91% | -571 | +571 |
| -11 | 918 | 796 | 122 | 86.71% | 13.29% | -652 | +652 |
| -11.5 | 925 | 807 | 118 | 87.24% | 12.76% | -684 | +684 |
| -12 | 836 | 735 | 101 | 87.92% | 12.08% | -728 | +728 |
| -12.5 | 800 | 715 | 85 | 89.38% | 10.63% | -841 | +841 |
| -13 | 789 | 700 | 89 | 88.72% | 11.28% | -787 | +787 |
| -13.5 | 712 | 651 | 61 | 91.43% | 8.57% | -1067 | +1067 |
| -14 | 665 | 612 | 53 | 92.03% | 7.97% | -1155 | +1155 |
| -14.5 | 631 | 599 | 32 | 94.93% | 5.07% | -1872 | +1872 |
| -15 | 531 | 502 | 29 | 94.54% | 5.46% | -1731 | +1731 |
| -15.5 | 464 | 448 | 16 | 96.55% | 3.45% | -2800 | +2800 |
| -16 | 438 | 423 | 15 | 96.58% | 3.42% | -2820 | +2820 |
| -16.5 | 420 | 395 | 25 | 94.05% | 5.95% | -1580 | +1580 |
| -17 | 365 | 346 | 19 | 94.79% | 5.21% | -1821 | +1821 |
| -17.5 | 354 | 341 | 13 | 96.33% | 3.67% | -2623 | +2623 |
| -18 | 279 | 270 | 9 | 96.77% | 3.23% | -3000 | +3000 |
| -18.5 | 300 | 294 | 6 | 98.00% | 2.00% | -4900 | +4900 |
| -19 | 239 | 235 | 4 | 98.33% | 1.67% | -5875 | +5875 |
| -19.5 | 238 | 235 | 3 | 98.74% | 1.26% | -7833 | +7833 |
| -20 | 189 | 185 | 4 | 97.88% | 2.12% | -4625 | +4625 |
| -20.5 | 201 | 196 | 5 | 97.51% | 2.49% | -3920 | +3920 |
| -21 | 183 | 178 | 5 | 97.27% | 2.73% | -3560 | +3560 |
| -21.5 | 170 | 165 | 5 | 97.06% | 2.94% | -3300 | +3300 |
| -22 | 140 | 137 | 3 | 97.86% | 2.14% | -4567 | +4567 |
| -22.5 | 145 | 144 | 1 | 99.31% | 0.69% | -14400 | +14400 |
| -23 | 123 | 122 | 1 | 99.19% | 0.81% | -12200 | +12200 |
| -23.5 | 111 | 110 | 1 | 99.10% | 0.90% | -11000 | +11000 |
| -24 | 113 | 112 | 1 | 99.12% | 0.88% | -11200 | +11200 |
| -24.5 | 110 | 108 | 2 | 98.18% | 1.82% | -5400 | +5400 |
I don’t think this data is skewed by teams covering more often at a given line either. This shows just wins and losses. If there are enough games in the sample, it should give you the true winning percentage predicted by the sports books.
More Moneyline Conversion Charts
- Where to Bet:
How to read NBA Las Vegas Odds
The point-spread was developed to provide a balance for both teams involved in a contest to attract bettors to potentially back the weaker team and receive points. The two squads in a game are listed with a title, either a favorite or an underdog. The favorite is usually the perceived better team in the game, as backing them means giving up several points.
The favorite is always listed with a minus (-) sign before the point-spread while the underdog is labeled with a plus (+) label.
Ex. Favorite -10, Underdog +10
On the VegasInsider.com odds page, there is another number associated with the favorite and its listed as -10. This number is simply defined as “vig” or what many in the sports betting industry call vigorish. Another common term is called “juice” and it’s technically the price the bettor has to pay on a straight wager.
Ex. Bet $110 to win $100 (10% juice)
Ex. Bet $100 to win $91.91 (10% juice)
It's not uncommon to see other values posted other than -10. Examples seen on the NBA Vegas Odds pages could include -08, -12, -15 and -20. The -10 price is the most common value in the industry while many books offer reduced 'juice odds' and that would fall into the -08 category.
The lower-juice sportsbooks are normally found outside of the state of Nevada. If you are in a state where sports betting is legal, please check out our online sportsbook directory to find the best and most secure places to make NBA bets.
Another number that’s posted on the NBA Las Vegas is the total or ‘over/under’ for the specific matchup. If the favorite is designated as the home team, then the total will be listed above and vice versa if the visitors are favorites.
All of the above numbers are listed next to the teams, and before each matchup is a Rotation number. The NBA Las Vegas Odds are listed in order of rotation and those numbers are generated and produced by the sportsbooks. Above each matchup and rotation is the Time of the game, which is subject to change. All game times are Eastern Standard Time.
NBA Open Line
One of the best features on the NBA Vegas Odds is the Open Line. This numbers consists of the first betting line received from one of our Las Vegas or Global Sportsbooks. The opening line varies depending on the sportsbook but it provides a clear-cut rating that the oddsmakers use. If you’re betting on the NBA or any other sport, it’s a great idea to view the open line first.
VI Consensus NBA Line
The VegasInsider.com Consensus NBA Line is just as important as the Open Line and also a key resource on odds platform. The Consensus column could be called a “Median Line” since it shows the most consistent number provided by the sportsbooks on VegasInsider.com. The consensus line will be the same as the open line but once the wagers start coming in, this number is often different than the openers.
Betting on NBA Games
Where can I bet on NBA games?
There are several legal sportsbook options in the United States. Visit our sportsbook directory to find online sportsbooks where you can bet on the NBA.
Who are the experts picking to win?
Our experts offer picks on all the big NBA games. Check out our 2020 NBA Playoff Predictions or our NBA game picks to see what our handicappers are saying.
What type of bets can I make on NBA games?
Betting the point spread, straight up winner, and over/under point total are the three popular NBA bets. Sportsbooks also first half lines, live betting, and other betting angles.
Who's the favorite to win the NBA Championship?
For odds on where teams will finish in the NBA Playoffs, check out our NBA Futures page.
Can you place parlay bets on NBA games?
Most sportsbooks will allow you to parlay your baskteball bets, meaning you can bet on multiple odds and win a bigger payout if they all win. Check out our parlay calculator to see what your payout will be.